This is a tough choice. You can make a case for each of these ladies, but ultimately I’ll go with Holly Hunter, who breaks your heart as a caring, loving yet vulnerable mother who feels helpless as her daughter begins to disintegrate into a defiant, self-destructive middle-school rebel.

*Most Overlooked: It’s a shame there wasn’t more room for Hope Davis’ wonderfully wacky turn in the skillfully peculiar American Splendor.

*Best Supporting Actor: Alec Baldwin (The Cooler), Benicio Del Toro (21 Grams), Djimon Hounsou (In America), Tim Robbins (Mystic River) and Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai).

Though I loved Watanabe’s performance (and am thrilled with the news he’s been cast as the villain in the next Batman film), it’s difficult to look past the tough, unsentimental work of Del Toro as an ex-con battling some serious spiritual demons.

Although Robbins is likely to win (and his work in Mystic River is also haunting), it’s downright scary how good Del Toro can be.

*Most Overlooked: It seems petty to say a film nominated for 11 awards was actually given short shrift, but The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King should have garnered an acting nomination, and that honor should have been bestowed upon Sean Astin, who emerged as the heart and soul of that three-film epic as the loyal hobbit, Sam.

*Best Actor: Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean), Ben Kingsley (House of Sand and Fog), Jude Law (Cold Mountain), Bill Murray (Lost in Translation) and Sean Penn (Mystic River).

Though Penn and Murray are the frontrunners, I keep drifting to Depp’s winning, playful performance in a film that had no business being as enjoyable and entertaining as it was. And you know what? Call it frivolous if you like, but perhaps it’s time to esteem a work that is simply joyous and fun.

*Most Overlooked: Though I cry no tears for Russell Crowe, who has been nominated three of the last four years, his confident portrayal of an outgunned sea captain was worthy of a nod from Oscar.

*Best Actress: Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider), Diane Keaton (Something’s Gotta Give), Samantha Morton (In America), Charlize Theron (Monster) and Naomi Watts (21 Grams).

I loved Whale Rider and was won over by Keaton in Something’s Gotta Give, but I can’t deny that Theron was unbelievably good (if you can call such a harrowing portrayal “good”) as real-life killer Aileen Wuornos.

*Most Overlooked: Although the category already includes one teenager, it’s a shame there wasn’t room for one more in Evan Rachel Wood. Her startlingly real performance as a seventh-grader gone awry has moved some to call her the most soul-shattering young performer since Jodie Foster.

*Best Director: Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation), Clint Eastwood (Mystic River), Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), Fernando Meirelles (City of God), and Peter Weir (Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World).

There’s no getting past my predilection for giving the award to Jackson simply for the consistency of his three-film epic adaptation. I know the award should be won or lost based solely on the merit of the final entry, but whom am I kidding?

*Most Overlooked: Almost everyone loves an underdog, so it’s too bad Gary Ross, director of the crowd-pleasing horse racing flick, Seabiscuit, didn’t get a chance to compete for this honor.

*Best Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River and Seabiscuit.

This is a fine, varied lot, and I have no quarrel with any of them garnering the top prize, but if I had a vote, I would go with Master and Commander. Return of the King had me engrossed and would have won my affections, but it lost my full vote of confidence with its overwrought, overlong ending.

*Most Overlooked: Big Fish, which boasts a charming performance by an endearing Ewan McGregor, is by far the most emotionally engaging and narratively satisfying film made by Tim Burton, yet it still retains his whimsical, elusive style.