By Kim J. Harmon

There are just 16 days left before the Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays meet at Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, Puerto Rico, to open the 2001 major league baseball season and that means there is little time – maybe less than a week – for fantasy league owners to crack a book or a magazine and figure out just what the heck they want to do for their draft.

From the local Home Run Derby leagues to the more widespread – and fanatical – Rotisserie leagues, this is gut-check time when thousands upon thousands of people succumb to fits of tremors because, for instance, the prospects of drafting Mike Hampton (who will pitch in Colorado and see his earned run average climb at least a run) or Gary Sheffield (who has openly said he would tank it if he is unhappy) are just too terrifying.

For a hobby, it can be tough on the ol’ ulcer.

One owner said, “The day pitchers and catchers reported is the day I started doing my homework. There is so much you have to keep on top of, so many numbers and so many new players, that it can really drive you nuts.”

In other words, if your draft is less than a week away and you haven’t even glanced at a headline in The Baseball Weekly, then you might as well stay home and watch reruns of The Andy Griffith Show on TVLand. See, lots of people take this stuff seriously and the ones that don’t are often left on the side of the road like a burned out shell of a car that people use as target practice.

And for that, you can especially thank Daniel Okrent, Lee Eisenberg, Thomas Guinzberg, Valerie Salembier, Peter Gethers, Harry Stein and Glen Waggoner. These are the seven people who got together about 20 years ago at the now-defunct La Rotisserie Francaise and hashed out the basic principles of Rotisserie baseball.

According to a 1996 article in The New York Times, Mr Okrent said the idea for Rotisserie came “out of the blue.” And an idea that came to him on an airplane was quickly embraced by Manhattan media and soon turned into a phenomenon. It has gotten to the point, now, that all of the baseball magazines – the ones that offer their previews and prospectus for the upcoming season – feature dozens of ads for national and on-line fantasy pools.

Most national and on-line pools are a simplified version of what full-scale Rotisserie baseball is all about. In Rotisserie baseball, you draft players from each position in the field and through the course of the season those players are ranked in several different statistical categories. Those rankings are then combined to get an overall ranking for your team.

That’s why it is essential, in those leagues, to become intimately familiar with stolen bases, earned run averages, batting averages, fielding percentages, runs batted in, slugging percentages, won-loss records, shutouts, saves, and even something called WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched).

Then there are pools, like a local Home Run Derby, that do nothing but focus on the home run. Like Rotisserie, players are drafted for each position on the field, but the only statistic that matters is the home run. Who cares if  Sammy Sosa strikes out at an alarming rate – is he going to hit 50 home runs again?

And that’s why it takes time to get ready for drafting, no matter what format your league is following. Just evaluating the players alone is a mind-boggling task for any fantasy owner – who is going to be the hot rookie? Who is going to take a step back? Who could have a career year? Does the veteran first baseman have another good season left in him?

Because of that agony, people profess many different strategies on how to draft your fantasy team and just about everyone’s two-bit opinions are available through a cursory scan of any one of dozens of internet sites.

For instance, according to Nathan Wangerin of Fantasy Baseball Index, the key statistic to your team’s offense is RBI. Mr Wangerin said in a recent column, “Yes, yes, I know, in real life baseball this is the quintessential overrated statistic. In fantasy, however, experience has shown me as go your RBI, so goes your offense. If you think it through, it makes perfect sense. Batting average says nothing about player’s effectiveness. Concern over runs scored leads owners into playing too many leadoff-type spray hitters. Home runs are great, but anyone in any lineup at any time can hit them. Big RBI totals mean a player is set up by his team to succeed, and he is talented enough to make it happen.”

And when it comes to pitching, Mr Wangerin said, “The key statistic is WHIP . . . (which) is the least misleading statistic to use when projecting who will maintain a high level or have a breakout season. Again, the reasoning is simple. Wins and saves are completely reliant on the pitcher’s (occasionally) supportive offense and defense. How many hitters a pitcher strikes out says nothing about how good a pitcher he actually is. ERA is a good judge, just not as good as WHIP. Why? WHIP exposes a pitcher. It shows his control; it shows his effectiveness. What ERA doesn’t show is how much danger a pitcher temporarily evaded.”

ERA . . . WHIP . . . RBI – it’s all alphabet soup, but it’s all essential stuff to know for fantasy owners.

And time is running out.