Finance Board Hears From Demographer, School Expansion Team

By John Voket

Not one member of the Board of Finance has ever argued the point that a high school expansion is unjustified. But going back well over a year, its members have each individually expressed concerns about the overall cost implications, and whether a student population level will ever rise to meet the planned capacity.

To get questions answered about the latest and best projections on possible capacity needs, and what types of expansions and renovations are being proposed in the latest high school option, the Board of Finance called in Dr Bruce Bothwell and the architect team from Fletcher-Thompson to a meeting Monday at Newtown Middle School.

Dr Bothwell, a retired administrator and school superintendent, has been supplementing state-issued student population projections to the Newtown school district for years. His projections have played a large role in determining the buildout capacities for the Reed Intermediate School as well as the new high school project, according to previous reports.

He started his discussion with a brief orientation about how he and his company formulate population projections.

“Essentially we look at the future by reading the past,” Mr Bothwell told the finance board. “These are not predictions. We take data and use sound statistical methods to craft the most accurate way to project enrollment data into the future.”

Relying heavily on what he called the “cohort survival method,” Dr Bothwell explained that his statisticians also factor in things like building permits and trends, existing home sales, local and national economic trends, changes in planning and zoning statutes, private school availability, and the effect of magnet and charter schools to hone projections.

Armed with new information about Newtown’s housing market, finance board chairman John Kortze asked how strongly that information factored into Dr Bothwell’s former enrollment estimates. Prior to the meeting, Mr Kortze provided information showing the rapid decline in local home starts, which have dropped 300 percent from a high of 201 new homes and 37 condos in 1998, to 51 homes and no condos in 2005.

The year-to-date figure reflects even deeper declines, with only 23 new homes permitted so far in 2006.

Mr Bothwell said that his statistics typically yield a three-projection ratio of high, mid, and low.

“When things were moving fast, we would typically go with high projections,” he said

Finance board member Michael Portnoy, who served on the building committee for the Reed school, pointed out that that panel relied on Dr Bothwell’s high projections when considering design aspects of the facility.

“We saw a strong economy, low interest rates, strong housing starts, and student population increases and declines,” Mr Portnoy said.

Dr Bothwell conceded that while his student population projections have fluctuated over the years, he remained confident in predominantly accurate numbers. School Superintendent Evan Pitkoff circulated two handouts showing that in years 1998, 2000, 2003, and 2005, his high projections were actually exceeded, while in 1996, 2001, 2002, and 2004, school populations did not rise to meet his middle projections for grades 9–12.

Another handout averaging the middle and high projections against the actual enrollment numbers showed an overall 98.6 percent accuracy, with 100 percent achieved in 2000, and just over 96 percent accuracy in 1996. Since 2000, Dr Bothwell’s accuracy has fluctuated between 99.3 and 97.3 percent.

First Selectman Herb Rosenthal, who was in attendance, asked what effect declining student populations in the kindergarten to fourth grade range projected out to 2010 might have on the eventual high school population. Mr Kortze asked for an answer also factoring the uneven and unstable current housing market.

“Most of the kids you will see in your high school are in the lower grades now,” Mr Bothwell answered.

When asked to clarify the level he would project the future population growth based on current statistics, Mr Bothwell admitted that he would hedge on the midrange number, tending to favor the low versus the high end as an alternative, suggesting the maximum buildout for 2,137 might not be met in the short-term.

School board member Thomas Gissen told the finance board that anecdotal information that was circulating in the housing development industry showed communities like Newtown with predominantly higher-priced homes are more likely to attract older families with older children substantially closer to high school age.

He said this might explain why lower grade populations seem to fluctuate more, while the high school population continues to be at or over capacity.

A Review Of The Plans

Following Dr Bothwell, four representatives from the Fletcher-Thompson school building team provided an expedited and updated presentation on particulars of the expansion and renovation proposed. Lead representative and project manager Joseph Costa said the current plan was a culmination of eight or nine options his firm has presented to solve the Newtown High School’s overpopulation challenges.

Finance board member and former school district business manager John Torok asked specifically if the current cost projections would hold through the proposed building timeline extending out to at least 2010. Mr Costa reiterated that most of the numbers, including the $47 million cost estimate incorporating a gymnasium expansion and artificial turfing for the Blue and Gold Stadium were extremely soft figures.

“The $190 per square foot factor [for the expansion only] is coming in on the low side,” he said, adding that number was only one variable among several including site work, renovations, utility connections, design and fee escalations that could all act, “driving costs up.”

That statement prompted finance board member Joseph Kearney to ask about scaling back the proposal.

“Can this option contract as easy as it can expand?” he asked. “What if the 2,137 population projection actually becomes 1,900, can the plan contract, or would we have to start over?”

Mr Costa said the Board of Education would have to make the ultimate decision as to the final population number the district would propose building for, stating the roughly 32 percent state reimbursement for the project would only be firm if the district built to the highest allowable population projection, and it at least applied for the funding by June 30, 2007.

Finance board member James Gaston asked about cost escalations if the timeline was pushed out. Mr Costa responded that he already built in a seven percent contingency, expecting the initial project design phase might get pushed out to the 2007-2008 budget year.

“We estimate the average increase is between seven and 12 percent, per year,” Mr Costa said.

Mr Rosenthal then pointed out that the timeline contingency was only one of several built into the plan.

“Based on the numbers I see here, you’ve got $12.4 million in contingency for price escalations on a $47 million project. That seems like a huge amount of contingency,” Mr Rosenthal said.

Finance board member Harrison Waterbury then asked if the architect could break out the actual costs of the new proposed expansion versus renovations to the existing facility. The architect said those numbers were not immediately available and they would be provided through Dr Pitkoff’s office as soon as possible.

Before closing the meeting, Mr Kortze confirmed with school board chairman Elaine McClure that she hoped to see the proposed project completed by fall of 2010.

“That would mean we would have to have debt service [to begin the design phase] in next year’s budget, but we don’t have that money in any budget until 2007-2008,” Mr Kortze said. “I would like to have a dialog about the cost. There is a tremendous amount built in based upon the projected number of students.

“How can we build to this size when Bothwell is saying we should project medium to low? We’re  not talking debatable numbers here. They may be hard to pinpoint,” Mr Kortze concluded, “but we have proof here that certain numbers are slowing and you can’t debate that.”