The Latest ‘Q’ Poll Shows GOP’s Foley, McMahon Gaining

HAMDEN — The latest Quinnipiac Poll results show that GOP challengers for a Connecticut’s US Senate seat and the governor’s office are threatening a once comfortable lead held by their Democratic counterparts.

Propelled by Connecticut likely voters who say they are “angry” with government, former wrestling executive and senate candidate Linda McMahon is closing in on state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, trailing just 49-46 percent, according to a September 28 release.

The next day, the QP announced that Republican gubernatorial hopeful Tom Foley currently had 42 percent of the vote among those questioned, compared to Democrat Dan Malloy’s 45 percent, making that race too close to call.

Ms McMahon’s new stats are in contrast to the 51-45 percent lead Mr Blumenthal held in a September 14 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac University poll, conducted by live interviewers.

In that survey on the US Senate race, four percent are undecided and nine percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day.

Mr Blumenthal leads 89-9 percent among Democrats. Ms McMahon leads 80-16 percent among Republicans. Independent voters shifted from 47-46 percent for Mr Blumenthal on September 14 to 49-44 percent for Ms McMahon on September 29. In a gender reversal, women back Mr Blumenthal 56-39 percent while men back Ms McMahon 52-44 percent.

The 33 percent of likely voters who say they are “angry” with the federal government support Ms McMahon 78-20 percent.

“With five weeks to go ... Mr Blumenthal has to be concerned about Linda McMahon’s momentum. He can hear her footsteps as she closes in on him,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. “But Ms McMahon has to be concerned that voters are still divided on her.”

Dr Schwartz said that usually debates do not make much of a difference, but in a race this close next month’s debates could be a game changer.

Of the 95 percent of Connecticut likely voters who have seen Ms McMahon’s TV ads, 56 percent find them annoying and 40 percent find them informative. Among all voters, 54 percent say Ms McMahon’s TV, radio and direct mail advertising is excessive, while 37 percent say it is about right.

Of the 87 percent who have seen Mr Blumenthal TV ads, 54 percent find them informative and 42 percent find them annoying. Mr Blumenthal’s advertising has been about right, 49 percent say, while 33 percent say he has not advertised enough and 11 percent call it excessive.

“Linda Ms McMahon has spent about $22 million on her campaign, but is it overkill? A majority of voters say that it has been excessive. In contrast, many Democrats feel that Mr Blumenthal hasn’t been doing enough on the advertising front,” Dr Schwartz said. “As Ms McMahon has flooded the airwaves, many voters are saying ‘Enough already!’”

The latest numbers on Mr Foley’s race for the governor’s seat compare to a 50-41 percent Mr Malloy lead in a September 15 likely voter survey.

In the latest survey, 12 percent of likely voters are undecided and 22 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day.

Mr Malloy leads 86-8 percent among Democrats. Mr Foley leads 82-9 percent among Republicans. Independent voters shift from a 42-44 percent split September 15 to 44-38 percent for Mr Foley today. Women back the Democrat 52-34 percent while men back the Republican 49-38 percent.

Voters who say they are “angry” with state government support Mr Foley 60-29 percent.

“Ever since the popular Republican Governor Jodi Rell decided not to seek reelection, Democrats have been very excited about their prospects of winning this open seat in blue Connecticut,” Dr. Schwartz said. “Yet despite a bruising primary victory, Republican businessman Tom Foley has made this a very tight race with Democrat Dan Malloy.”

Like Republican US Senate candidate McMahon, Mr Foley has been capitalizing on the anti-government feeling, and Dr Schwartz pointed out that both Ms McMahon and Mr Foley have been gaining due to the support of independent voters.

“The last time there was a Connecticut governor’s race this tight was 16 years ago when there was an open seat and Republican John Rowland beat Democrat William Curry by just three points,” Dr Schwartz said. “With about a third of voters still persuadable, the upcoming debates could be decisive.”

Connecticut likely voters have a 39-27 percent favorable opinion of Mr Malloy, with 31 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Mr Foley gets a 34-25 percent favorability, with 36 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

The 79 percent of likely voters who have seen Mr Foley’s TV ads split 45-46 percent on whether they are informative or annoying.

Mr Malloy does only slightly better as 80 percent of voters have seen his ads and 49 percent find them informative while 43 percent find them annoying.

From September 21-26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,083 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points for either poll.