Board of Education (BOE) members listened to a presentation on a ten-year enrollment projection and space utilization study of Newtown Public Schools at their Tuesday, November 18 meeting.

The recently completed study was conducted by MP Planning Group, a Connecticut-based planning firm with collective experience in the fields of community planning, demography, school facility master planning, and more.

BOE Chair Alison Plante said the Newtown community has been asking important questions over the last few years about “enrollment trends, the conditions of our buildings ... and what all of that means for our budget and for our future investments in our buildings.

“Of course, the data doesn’t give us the answers, but it will help us start to ask some of the right questions,” Plante said. “And then once we have that information, the question before us will be pretty clear, which is what do we do about it?”

Early next year, Plante said they will be assembling a facilities master planning committee with a wide group of stakeholders to further shape and assess their options as a district. This process, she said, will ensure decisions are made thoughtfully and align with the community’s vision for Newtown Public Schools.

Superintendent of Schools Anne Uberti said it also connects with prior work completed on a facilities condition assessment.

“I want to thank [MP Planning Group] in advance for the way they approached their work, as well as our Town board and community stakeholders having the opportunity to review the results and begin to engage in real long-range planning,” Uberti said.

Enrollment Drivers

Pat Gallagher and Mike Zuba of MP Planning Group went on to present their study to the BOE, breaking down their findings into four categories: enrollment drivers, enrollment trends and projections, capacity and utilization analysis, and planning considerations.

Zuba said they tried to pick out the “most salient pieces of information” for the presentation, but recognized there could be some details in the full enrollment projection or full capacity utilization report that are not included. However, BOE members were free to ask questions after the presentation if they had any questions.

He began by talking about enrollment drivers such as demographics, housing, and birth rates. Zuba said they leveraged data from the Town census as well as the Connecticut Department of Public Health (DPH) to put together a demographics summary. It included the Town’s ten-year census data dating back to 1920.

Zuba said Newtown’s population is stable; the DPH’s annual population estimate in 2024 noted Newtown has around 28,000 residents. Demographically, he said Newtown has a growing population of those over 65, with the age group increasing from 13% in 2010 to 18% in 2020.

However, Zuba also noted the impact of COVID-19 on the 2020 census, as it was fielded at the onset of the pandemic.

“We know we had a lot of turnover in housing in communities not only throughout Connecticut, but throughout the northeast and the nation ... That always doesn’t get captured in [this], so we do know there’s some limitations ... due to the pandemic and generational turnover,” Zuba explained.

He said births have been on the rise over the last several years, particularly going back to 2016 where the town started to see a “major uptick.” That number peaked in 2023, with 266 births overall.

In order to develop ten-year kindergarten projections, Zuba said they have to develop birth projections for about five years. These birth projections have three different models of possibilities, with the high around 260, the medium around 250, and the low around 240. The study also notes that increasing births are anticipated to result in larger kindergarten classes.

Zuba went into the next major driver overall — housing turnover. He said housing turnover has slowed since 2000. Before the pandemic, Newtown averaged around 425 home sales annually. Sales “shot up” with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020; the town experienced “mini peaks” in 2020 and 2021, averaging about 530 home sales annually. However, home sales have averaged around 300 sales annually over the last three years, according to Zuba.

He also noted that they tracked rates of home construction over the last decade, and accounted for notable residential projects, including the Castle Hill subdivision and Taunton Press redevelopment, in their data.

District Projections

For district projections, Zuba said they coined the term “New-to-District (NTD) students” to get an understanding of what in-migration looks like in a community. These students are identified by comparing state student IDs in the district’s enrollment database from one year to the next.

While the 2021-22 school year had 307 NTD students, that number dropped to 218 for the following school year. The number of NTD students dropped to 161 for the 2023-24 school year, went to 162 for the 2024-25 school year, and decreased further to 143 for the 2025-26 school year.

“And you can see it’s a very similar step down to the home sale chart ... where we went from a peak and it’s kind of dropped off and then dropped off [more],” Zuba said.

Moving on to historic enrollment trends, Zuba said enrollment was on a relatively consistent declining trend between the 2010-11 school year and the 2020-21 school year, dropping from 5,464 to 4,053 PK-12 students. Since 2020-21: elementary school enrollment has increased by 105 students (eight percent), intermediate school enrollment increased by 11 students (two percent), middle school enrollment decreased by 46 students (seven percent), and high school enrollment decreased by 240 students (16%).

Zuba said this is a “really similar pattern” they see in their “Derby districts throughout the state,” where they start to see enrollment rebound in the last five years.

“It typically happens right around the elementary grades, and then it’s a little bit slower to see that rebound because we still have smaller cohorts that are in the high school and middle school,” Zuba explained.

For their enrollment projections, Zuba said they developed three levels of projections: high — optimistic, medium — baseline, and low — pessimistic. All three models, he said, show a range of around 3,991-4,150 K-12 students in the next five years. This number increased in the last five years of predictions, ranging from 3,937-4500 students by the 2035-36 school year.

Zuba noted that housing conditions, demographics, and enrollment in-migration align best with the medium model, and represent the most likely direction for the district moving forward.

Space Utilization

Gallagher took over the remaining half of the presentation, which focused on the space utilization study. He noted that capacity takes a look at the physical buildings throughout the district and sees “how well positioned they are to accommodate [the district’s] educational program,” both through their class size policies and other services they provide.

He added that capacity will change over time, and that if the BOE looked at these buildings 20 years ago, the services each of them offered were quite different compared to today.

Gallagher called the capacity process a combination of qualitative and quantitative work. MP Planning Group collaborated with building leadership to develop an inventory of standard classrooms, special purpose rooms, and core offerings at each facility from floor plans, schedules, and building walk-throughs.

“And what we know, having done this for a long time, is that you can never achieve 100% efficiency or hit your max loading levels across the board in every school,” Gallagher explained. “There’s a loss of efficiency, especially in schools that are on the smaller side.”

He then went over facilities by instruction level, noting each one’s space program (general service offerings), planning capacity, and current and projected elementary utilization.

Planning capacities are calculated based on academic classrooms, classrooms for special courses such as art and music, and “flex” classrooms, which are classrooms that might not be used as classrooms right now but could be in the future.

Gallagher said the total planning capacity for the district’s four elementary schools is 1,507 students. Newtown Public Schools, he said, is projected to average 97% utilization across its elementary schools in the next five years, ranging from a low of 91% at Hawley Elementary School to a high of 108% at Head O’Meadow Elementary School.

Hawley and Sandy Hook Elementary School are projected to not exceed planning capacity over the next ten years. However, Middle Gate Elementary School is projected to exceed planning capacity starting in 2029-30, while Head O’Meadow is expected to exceed planning capacity every year for the next ten years — peaking at 111%.

Gallagher noted there is limited space within the elementary schools for future program growth, and that there is not enough space to return the pre-K program to the elementary schools over the next ten years. He suggested that the district consider short-term strategies to better balance enrollment across the four elementary schools, noting the different planning capacity rates.

As for Reed Intermediate School, it is expected to average 89% utilization over the next decade under its current configuration housing the pre-K and NELC programs. Part of the district’s long-term planning, Gallagher said, is to develop a future vision for pre-K and whether it will remain at Reed. He also noted that Reed currently does not have enough space to move an additional grade there.

Gallagher then moved on to Newtown Middle School (NMS), which he said has a current utilization of 70%. Gallagher said they project it to grow around 70-75% over the next five years, but it will exceed 80% over the last three years.

However, like with Reed, NMS does not have enough space to move an additional grade there.

“We have our seven flex classrooms [there], far short of the 14 to 16 we would need for an additional grade to move in,” Gallagher explained.

He said during their walk-through of NMS that they noted the unique layout and configuration of the building. Gallagher called it a somewhat “sprawling building,” noting long travel distances between the wings, science classrooms not clustered within teams, administrative offices not centralized and instead spread out across multiple areas, and no elevator.

Newtown High School (NHS) has a current utilization of 67%, and is planned to average that same number over the next ten years. Gallagher said that, despite the school’s modest utilization, there are few empty classrooms at NHS, which means smaller class sizes, expanded course offerings, and more flexible scheduling for students.

He noted that the school’s collaborate work rooms are underutilized, as most teachers have their own classrooms.

Next Steps, Other Topics

The study noted the Facility Condition Assessment conduced by Bureau Veritas earlier this year, which identified anticipated capital costs for each building. These assessments, Gallagher said, are really about the state of existing infrastructure within the buildings. The study flagged NMS as having the highest capital needs in the district over the next ten years at $39,856,500.

Middle Gate has the highest capital needs of any elementary school at $25,783,700, while NHS has the third-highest capital needs at $21,758,800.

Gallagher said the district can take a step back and think on whether or not its current education model is working well, or if they should consider alternative grade configurations.

He reminded BOE members that there is not enough space in the existing buildings to shift grades into either Reed or NMS. As a result, he said they see grade configuration as requiring new construction.

“And we’re really targeting the middle school as kind of the area that we see as the highest priority for focus,” Gallagher said.

The study presented three potential options on how the district could address the capital needs of NMS: renovate the existing middle school, build a new middle school while maintaining the current grades 7-8 configuration, or build a new middle school with a new grades 6-8 configuration.

The meeting was important beyond the enrollment and space utilization study, as it marked the last time Leonardi and Zukowski served in their capacity as BOE members. The board appointed Leonardi at its March 19, 2024 meeting and appointed Zukowski at its August 13, 2024 meeting. Their terms end on December 1 of this year, with neither choosing to run for reelection on the BOE.

Uberti shared her gratitude towards Leonardi and Zukowski for the final time, thanking the pair for “all they have done for our community, our schools, and for me personally.” She continued by saying their thoughtful questions, steady guidance, and commitment to respectful discourse have helped her grow in her role as superintendent.

“It has been a privilege to work alongside you, and I deeply appreciate the time, care, and expertise that you have given to Newtown,” Uberti said.

Before any further discussion, Uberti presented Leonardi and Zukowski each with their own gift.

BOE members also approved the 2025-29 paraeducator contract in a unanimous vote. Uberti noted it was a pleasure to work with the district’s paraeducators throughout the contract process.

She added, “I’m deeply grateful for the work they do each day to help students with learning and behavioral challenges reach success and achieve important milestones. They contribute in countless immeasurable ways to the students they support, and our schools are stronger because of their dedication and care.”

Reporter Jenna Visca can be reached at jenna@thebee.com.