By Kim J. Harmon

Money can’t buy happiness … and it can’t buy World Series championships, or so the New York Yankees – with a payroll approaching $220 million last year – have discovered since their last title way, way back in 2000.

There are fewer and fewer certainties in baseball nowadays and in no way is it certain that the Yankees – whose payroll may dip below $200 million – will win the American League Eastern Division title. Nor is it certain that the Yankees, with all those aging veterans owed some $400 million over the next few years, will even be able to win 90 games.

The Yankees have a 42-year-old pitcher who is no longer dominant … a 37-year-old pitcher who has never won 20 games and whose earned run average hasn’t gotten any lower than 4.41 over the last two years … three younger starters (or long relievers) who are way more fragile than the two elder statesmen … two power hitters than most people suspect will decline very rapidly for reasons other than age … and a catcher who is clearly on the down slope of his career.

That is the Yankees, in a nutshell.

No, nothing is certain any more … except that the Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates have already been eliminated from the playoffs in every sense except for mathematical.

So, how is the major league baseball season – opening Sunday night with the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox squaring off – going to shape up?

Well, I’ll tell you.

In the American League Eastern Division, look for the Boston Red Sox to take the division title. You think the Sox are going to miss noodle-armed Johnny Damon? Look at the numbers – Coco Crisp has more pop in his bat (seven more doubles and six more home runs in nine fewer games than Damon). The offense will be fine and if Curt Schilling isn’t bleeding in his shoes anymore, the pitching staff will be pretty good. Watch for the Sox to finish ahead of the Yankees with Toronto remaining a threat until July. Forget Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

In the American League Central, the White Sox – regardless of the terrible spring – are a good bet to repeat because the team is relatively intact with the addition of power-hitting Jim Thome. The Indians appear to have a powerful lineup and the Tigers have some great young pitching, but do they have the guns? The Twins should be in the mix, too, but the White Sox will pull away. And pencil in the Royals – even though they have a couple of great, young pitchers – for 105 losses.

In the American League West, moneyball may be back in full effect for the Oakland Athletics, who have four stud pitchers in Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Dan Haren and Joe Blanton. A superb third baseman and a powerhitting designated hitter anxious to make his old team eat its heart out have the A’s primed for a division title. The Angels are good, though – probably good enough to steal the Wild Card from the Al East. The Rangers have improved, but how much? They have some good power hitters (like Mark Teixeira) but an entirely new pitching staff puts them on the wait and see list. And the Mariners have a couple of bright, young stars in Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre, but their pitching staff looks wholly unintimidating.

In the National League East, the New York Mets may actually have the team to do it. Carlos Beltran should be more comfortable and the addition of Carlos Delgado at first makes the lineup somewhat daunting. Obviously, the pitching staff is a huge question mark with a fragile Pedro Martinez and an ancient Tom Glavine at the top of the rotation. The Braves may take first only because they always seem to find a way even after everyone counts them out. But if not the Braves, it certainly won’t be the Phillies, the Nationals or the Marlins. The Marlins are so bad they could break the modern day record for losses in a single season (120) and maybe even sniff the all-time record for losses in a single season (134 by the Cleveland Spiders in 1899).

The National League Central will be a dogfight between the Cardinals and Astros. The Cubs may make a little push, but they will fade (probably earlier than later) after they are forced to shut down Mark Prior and Kerry Wood for the season (which they almost certainly will have to). Look for the Brewers to finish third and maybe even approach second early in August. The Astros take this division only if Roger Clemens comes back in May to pitch, otherwise it belongs to the Cards who seem to be stacked top to bottom.

The National League West was the worst division in baseball a year ago and probably will be again this year. The only excitement (mixed with disgust and disdain) will come out of San Francisco as Barry Bonds approaches the hallowed home run marks of Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron. But that pesky knee problem may rear its ugly head again and if it does, the Giants are finished. The Padres have a good chance to repeat only because the Rockies, Diamondbacks and Dodgers (that signing of Nomar Garciaparra was a masterstroke, huh?) are terrible.

Here it is –

American League

Boston Red Sox

Chicago White Sox

Oakland Athletics

Los Angeles Angels*

National League

New York Mets

St. Louis Cardinals

San Diego Padres

Atlanta Braves*

American League Champs

Boston Red Sox

National League Champs

St. Louis Cardinals

World Series Champs

Boston Red Sox