Pandemic Specialist To Offer Some Startling Predictions

By Nancy K. Crevier

Forty percent. Sixty percent. One hundred percent. These are the numbers pediatric pulmonologist and Newtown resident Dr Greg Dworkin will toss out to his listeners at the C.H. Booth Library, Thursday, June 7, at 7:30 pm, when he presents “The Hype, the Hope and the Science of Bird Flu.”

Forty percent is the number of people who could be put out of the workforce should a pandemic virus strike. Sixty percent is the death rate that could be expected with the spread of an H5 virus, such as bird flu. During the 1918 Great Influenza, or Spanish Flu, Pandemic, which was an H1 virus, 675,000 Americans died; its death rate was 2½ percent. One hundred percent is the certainty that a pandemic, always caused by a Type A influenza virus, will occur.

The numbers are not meant to alarm, but rather to startle people into taking action to prevent a catastrophic spread of a pandemic outbreak, and Dr Dworkin is certain that Newtown residents, and residents worldwide, need to be better prepared to do so.

Dr Dworkin knows of what he speaks. He is the chief of pediatric pulmonology and medical director of the Pediatric Inpatient Unit at Danbury Hospital and serves on the Danbury city and school Pandemic Flu Task Forces. He holds academic appointments as clinical assistant professor of pediatrics at New York Medical College and is an adjunct assistant clinical professor of Allied Health Science at Quinnipiac College. He has presented by invitation at the Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Conference 2007, at the CIDRAP 2007 Business Preparedness for Pandemic Influenza National Summit, and at the CDC’s 2007 Leaders to Leaders Conference. He will also be a presenter at the June 2007 Pandemic Influenza National Summit.

Dr Dworkin is also the founding editor of Flu Wiki at fluwikie.com and the Flu Wiki Forum at newfluwiki2.com. “Wikie-wikie,” Dr Dworkin explained, is Hawaiian for “rapid spread” and it is the potential for a rapid spread of a pandemic that concerns this pulmonary specialist.

Bird flu has been in the news on and off since it first occurred in humans in 1997. Initially there was a huge influx of news about the impending pandemic that bird flu would set off, said Dr Dworkin, and then…nothing.

Because the rate of bird flu has remained constant this past decade, with no huge upswings or downturns, it is no longer a regular news item, and this has led people to believe that they do not need to address the issue. But the threat of bird flu has not gone away and people need to know that just as with any natural disaster, it is necessary to take steps to prepare for the pandemic that will eventually occur in our society.

“What we don’t know is where it will happen, when it will happen, which virus it will be, or how bad it will be. It is a little like trying to predict the next category five hurricane. You know it’s coming, but when? Where?” asked Dr Dworkin.

While a pandemic is a scary thought, it can be handled in a manner that puts it in perspective with other disasters that strike our nation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has proposed carefully prepared, new recommendations as of February to reduce the spread of a pandemic virus, said Dr Dworkin.

To help citizens grasp the gravity of a pandemic outbreak, the CDC has decided to put pandemics in terms to which people can relate. “Everyone understands that a category one hurricane is not as devastating as a category four or five hurricane,” he said. So, as with these seasonal windstorms, pandemics will be rated one through five, based on the severity of the virus.

Wearing a mask would be the first step to reduce spread, he said, but following upon that would be to implement “social distancing.” This would mean trying to stay six to eight feet away from others during the pandemic, and that is not as easy as it might sound. “Where do we see illness spread? In schools. Schools would need to close. Any place where large groups gather would need to be shut down,” he said, “and that would be for up to 12 weeks.”

“Private citizens need to consider now the effects of school being closed for three months,” said Dr Dworkin. “How does that impact everyone? What if 40 percent of the workers at Big Y are sick? What if 40 percent of the health care workers can’t go to work? How does that affect you?”

What Dr Dworkin would like is for every individual to be prepared to reduce the spread of a pandemic when it occurs. He would like people to step outside of their preference to not acknowledge that bad things can happen. A recent American Public Health survey, he said, noted that of the one-quarter of people surveyed who said they were prepared, only half of them truly were.

Individuals need to have on hand two weeks worth of food for their household, as well as enough water for every person for two weeks, he said. That comes out to about one gallon of water per person per day, said Dr Dworkin. “This should be an ongoing practice, not just to prepare for a pandemic. Any disaster can mean being without power, without water for an unspecified time. What about the recent storm in town? People had no power for a number of days. Think about what it would be like if supplies were not available because too many people were not able to go to work.” More information on what should be stockpiled for emergencies can be found at pandemicflu.gov.

H5 viruses, of which bird flu is one, are highly respected by those in the health field, said Dr Dworkin. “We are not ready as a town, as a state, or as a society right now to deal with a pandemic.” He is encouraged, however, by the recent major investment by the state to gather town leaders, health workers, school officials, emergency personnel, and experts by region to devise plans of action in the event of a pandemic.

The one-hour PowerPoint slide show that Dr Dworkin will present at the library will discuss what is and is not “hype” about bird flu and pandemics, focusing on the Great Influenza of 1918 and how what was learned from that disaster can be related to modern day concerns.

Interestingly enough, said Dr Dworkin, even without knowing why this would work, at the height of the 1918 epidemic Newtown and surrounding towns closed schools. Cities that enacted measures to keep large groups from gathering that year had much lower death rates than those that failed to do so, said Dr Dworkin.

“I encourage people to come to the talk with stories about how the 1918 Great Influenza affected their families, their ancestors,” said Dr Dworkin.

As a member of various flu pandemic boards at the national and state levels, Dr Dworkin is excited to bring his message of information and encouragement to Newtown. The program at C.H. Booth Library is free and open to the public. The library does request that reservations be made by calling 426-4533.