Date: Thu 05-Dec-1996

Publication: Bee

Author: MICHEL

Quick Words:

schools-enrollment-projections

Full Text:

Enrollment Report Predicts Overcrowding At The Middle School In Three Years

BY MICHELE HOGAN

Newtown's school population continues to grow unabated. Enrollment projections

for Newtown public schools, which were just released by Focus Consulting

Associates of Carmel, New York, predict a continued increase in school

enrollment over the next five years, especially at the middle and secondary

school levels.

The surge of new students in Newtown will overcrowd Newtown Middle School in

as little as three years, according to the consultants. This conclusion has

brought new urgency to the school board's discussions about the need for a new

school for upper grade levels at a potential cost for Newtown of $11.6

million.

The elementary schools will need to make adjustments to free up space for

extra classrooms, but the town may squeak by without having to build a new

elementary school.

John Reed, superintendent of schools, said, "If it is short-term, we'll roll

up our sleeves, but we don't have maneuvering room. It just seems to make it

at the elementary level."

By the year 2000, the Newtown Middle School is going to be overcrowded,

according to Focus Consulting.

Even if all options for middle-school expansion are implemented, in another

four years the school will be too small for the number of students expected.

The new addition at the Newtown High School will allow the school to absorb

the increasing numbers of high school students expected over the next six to

seven years.

Focus Consulting has reported that Newtown can "expect K-5 enrollment (now at

2,183) to grow to 2,386 by 2002-03 and then level off.

"Middle School enrollment (grades 6-8) currently at 951 will grow to 1,306

through the projection period [to 2005].

"High School enrollment (9-12) presently at 1,126 will grow to 1,526 through

2005-06, and we believe this growth will continue slowly for a few additional

years before leveling off."

School Capacity

Dr Bruce Bothwell, project coordinator of the enrollment study, commented that

school capacity is determined, in large part, by the values a community places

on education.

In analyzing school capacity he examined class sizes, inspected the schools

with an eye for additional space, then applied a "widely used and fairly

reliable formula developed at Columbia University."

Regarding class size, Dr Bothwell said that "one community says 18 [students

per class is full capacity] another will accept 26."

If the Newtown schools maintain an average class size of 22 to 23 students,

then projected enrollment over the next five years would require nine extra

elementary classrooms, 16 middle school classrooms, and 18 high school

classrooms.

Dr Reed said that "23 is a high class average because some classes will be as

high as 26."

Increasing Capacity

Head O' Meadow School is slated to receive an annex building in 2000/2001,

which would provide two or three more classrooms, but the other schools are

not well-suited for further additions.

Portable or modular classrooms are a possibility, but they cost about $100,000

each, and are also expensive to rent.

Dr Reed said that "there is an unknown here. If it is a temporary situation,

we can make adjustments, just as parents make adjustments if their grown kids

move away and then come back to stay with them for a while."

However, the adjustments could reduce the quality of education that Newtown

students receive and are therefore undesirable as long-term solutions.

One way to squeeze more children into Newtown schools is to convert specialty

rooms to classrooms. Also some programs could be moved temporarily to the high

school or other locations.

Head O' Meadow has two rooms that could potentially be converted into small

classrooms.

One of the rooms is the small computer lab, but the room is smaller than a

regular classroom and windowless so it would need work.

In some school districts computers are placed in classrooms rather than in a

dedicated computer lab, thereby freeing up one more classroom per school.

All local public schools have a room dedicated to art and music, but only two,

Middle Gate School and Hawley School, have math and science specialty rooms.

Dr Bothwell mentioned that some communities will accept art and music being

taught by teachers pushing carts from class to class, which could potentially

provide two extra classrooms per school.

Dr Bothwell went on to say that some communities place a value on the improved

program quality they expect from giving specialists their own rooms.

At the Newtown Middle School, a room could perhaps be gained by converting the

sewing room into a regular classroom.

The middle school could also be expanded by four rooms by converting the

administrative offices of the Board of Education to classrooms. This would add

five classrooms, but leave about 11 more needed over the next few years.

Dr Reed said that the cost of converting the administrative offices located at

the Newtown Middle School into classrooms is close to a million dollars, and

if a new school were needed anyway, it would make more sense to put the money

into the new school.

In any case, when student numbers go up, so does the demand for cafeteria

space, libraries and other shared areas of the school.

Newtown High School has a maximum capacity of about 1,600 students, and

should, over the next seven or eight years, be large enough for the projected

demand.

The possibility of using the high school to relieve crowding in other schools

was suggested.

The option of moving eighth graders to the high school was not recommended

because of the potential serious loss in the quality of eighth-grade

education.

Dr Bothwell mentioned that some communities with overcrowded schools use

school space more intensively. A reorganization of hours of classes,

staggering of hours, or overlapping could let rooms be used for longer periods

each day, thereby increasing capacity, but Dr Bothwell did not recommend such

an approach for Newtown.

One classroom could be gained at Sandy Hook School by moving the PROBE program

(for pre-school children with special needs) to the high school or another

location.

A New School?

If the demand on the local school system continues to increase, then Newtown

will need another school -- and soon.

The Newtown Board of Education has mentioned the possibility of a school for

fifth- and sixth-grade students. By drawing one grade from elementary school

and one from middle school, crowding at both levels would be eased. Dr Reed

said that this configuration of schools has worked well in other areas.

In three years of time, if the administrative offices on Queen Street are not

converted to classrooms, the middle school will be a very crowded school,

according to the enrollment report.

A previous report on enrollment prepared for the school board indicated that

it takes approximately three years to build a school, from land acquisition to

completion. If that time line still applies, a decision regarding a new school

would have to be made soon to forestall overcrowding in the middle school.

The school board discussed opportunities for additional school space at

Fairfield Hills.

A new school would require 15 acres, according to Dr Reed, but he noted that

the bulk of that land would be open fields and play area, which could be used

by the community when not be used by the school children.

First Selectman Herb Rosenthal, who was also in attendance, said that "22

acres [at Fairfield Hills] will be deeded to the town, but nobody has decided

what they will be used for. There is nothing specific set in motion for that

acreage."

Peggy Ulrick-Nims, a school board member, suggested that the 22 acres was "a

vacuum, waiting to be filled."

The Board of Education has received preliminary estimates from Kaestle Boos

Associates, Inc, the architects for the Hawley and Newtown High School

projects. If a grade five and six school with a comfortable capacity of 600

students was required, the cost estimate for the building would be close to

$17,450,000. The land cost is not known at this time.

If Newtown received state reimbursement at the current level, the cost to the

town of Newtown would be reduced to about $11,600,000.

State reimbursement levels for Newtown have been consistently dropping, from

51 percent when renovations were done to Sandy Hook School and Middle Gate

School, to a figure in the mid-40 percent range for the renovations of Hawley

and the Newtown High School to 37 percent at present. Dr Kuklis expects the

trend of reduced aid for school building in the Newtown area to continue.

Why So Many Kids

Focus Consulting reports that "due to a combination of circumstances -- good

schools, affordability, housing selection, etc. -- Newtown remains a highly

attractive location for young and growing families. As a result, since 1990,

Newtown's student enrollment has soared -- first at the elementary school

levels, and now at both middle and high school grades."

Newtown is gaining an additional ten children per month through the sale of

new and existing homes.

At current class sizes, the 228 new children who have come to Newtown over the

past 23 months would fill roughly 10 classrooms each year.

New home sales account for the bulk of the increase in children, bringing 206

school-age children and 22 pre-school children to Newtown during a 23-month

period (June 1995 through May 1997, excluding April 1997 because records were

unavailable).

Dr Bothwell said that he remembers when the Town of Newtown was ranked low in

the state for the number of building permits issued, then a few years ago it

went up to number 4 among the state's 169 towns. He said data is not available

for this year, but "I suspect you are 1 or 2 for issuing building permits."

Dr Bothwell noted that Newtown was described in the New York Times recently as

a very desirable area, with a booming building industry, and plenty of land

waiting for development.

He also said that there are 308 approved lots, but some of the 308 are holding

lots containing many lots within them.

Dr Bothwell said that the Newtown Board of Education has "done extremely well

with enrollment rises, handled it as well as it could be. What you do next is

so important."