Date: Fri 04-Dec-1998

Publication: Bee

Author: MICHEL

Quick Words:

schools-enrollment-projections

Full Text:

School Enrollment Projections Surge

BY MICHELE HOGAN

New evidence shows that crowding in Newtown schools may end up being even

worse than expected, and it may happen sooner.

Newtown Middle School, even with creative use of space, will soon become

"hopelessly overcrowded," according to Dr Bruce Bothwell of Focus Consulting

Associates, in his latest enrollment update report for the Newtown Public

Schools.

In his report to the Board of Education Tuesday night, he made it clear that

the his warnings about severe crowding at the middle school level are not

conjecture. He said, "Those children are in the system now."

Newtown Middle School is currently filled to capacity with 1,044 students in

grades 6, 7 and 8. According to Dr Bothwell, by the year 2000-2001, Newtown

will need to accommodate an additional 148 students (about six more classes).

These figures are using Dr Bothwell's "middle" enrollment projection, which he

considers the most likely to occur.

His high enrollment projection, second most likely to occur, would put 173

more students in the school.

The lowest enrollment projection, which would occur only if there was a major

economic downturn or major demographic change, would still have 122 more

students attending the middle school in the year 2000-2001.

Crowded Elementary Schools

All of the elementary schools have felt the pinch for space over the past few

years, and it is going to get worse before it levels off. Focus Consulting

reviewed new birth rate evidence indicating that enrollment will continue to

increase for at least two more years before it levels off.

Although elementary enrollment is normally more difficult to determine than

middle grades enrollment (because the children are not yet in the system), Dr

Bothwell is confident that the significant enrollment increases are right

around the corner.

The current high elementary enrollment of 2,276, taken October 1, 1998, has

already forced schools to scrounge for any usable classroom space.

Even Dr Bothwell's lowest forecast adds 104 students within two years. His

middle forecast, adds 143; and his high forecast, 180 students. Even if the

children fell conveniently into class size groupings within each elementary

school's district, this would still mean providing four to nine additional

rooms, which the schools do not have.

The year after that, 2001, Newtown should prepare for 2,532 elementary

students, which is 256 students (at least 11 classrooms) more than today, if

the middle forecast is accurate.

Last year, when Focus Consulting did its annual report, it forecast 2,376

elementary students, 156 fewer than it now forecasts for the same year,

2001-2002.

Dr Bothwell pointed to newly released birth data at the national, state and

local levels to substantiate the increase in the elementary school population.

He added that the continued high level of construction of new homes is also

significantly affecting enrollment in Newtown's public schools.

What could diminish the projected increases?

Dr Bothwell said, "Conceivably, if there was a sharp drop in the economy then

the elementary schools might not grow quite as fast as expected."

The high school is expected to accommodate projected enrollment for at least

the next nine years, the time period forecast by Focus Consulting.

Dr Reed pointed out that the current elementary population (pre-K to grade 5)

would approximate the expected pre-K to grade 4 population for 2004. If the

fifth grade was taken out of the elementary schools, then the elementary

schools would likely remain comfortably populated for the next nine years.

Pre-K to grade 4 would rise from 2,203 students in the year 2002 to a peak of

2,249 students in the year 2004. This pre-K to grade 4 population is only 27

students (one classroom) less than the current elementary population, which

includes the fifth grade as well.

Likewise, the Newtown Middle School is crowded, with a current grade 6, 7 and

8 population of 1,044. By the year 2006, grade 7 and 8 students alone would

comfortably fill the current middle school, reaching approximately 912

students by the year 2006.

Dr Bothwell said "I think the Board of Education is on the right track, with

[a proposal for] a fifth-sixth grade school."