Date: Fri 15-Dec-1995

Publication: Bee

Author: STEVEB

Quick Words:

schools-enrollment-capital

Full Text:

New School May Not Be Necessary, Despite Enrollment Growth

B Y S TEVE B IGHAM

It appears Newtown may be able to squeeze by without the addition of a fifth

elementary school despite an expected 25 percent increase in enrollment over

the next 10 years.

School officials this week heard a report by a New York firm, giving

up-to-date school enrollment forecasts for the next eight years. By all

accounts, the town's six public schools will have to pull out all the stops if

they are to house the significant increase in students.

Nevertheless, Superintendent of Schools John Reed believes it can be done. He

said schools will have to make the best use of their space, and he did not

rule out the possibility of bringing in portables at certain schools.

"It is highly likely that we're in pretty good shape," he said after reading

the report. "It's a tight fit, but the shoes are wearable."

In reaction to the building boom in town, particularly in Sandy Hook, the

school board hired Focus Consulting Associates of New York State to come up

with reliable enrollment estimates.

In explaining his firm's report, Bruce Bothwell pointed to the large number of

new houses in town as the cause for the projected increases and said additions

at Newtown High and Hawley schools, expected to cost in the area of $32

million, are the only way to avoid building another school.

"No matter how you look at it, there are a lot of kids coming down the

pipeline," he told the board at its Tuesday night meeting.

Newtown's population is nearing the 22,000 mark, a far cry from its size of

4,023 residents in 1940. And, there are nearly 5,000 more Newtowners today

than there were in the early 1970s, he said. The schools house nearly 4,000

students today, but the projections for the future indicate a rising trend of

5- to 17-year-old students through the early 2000s, where the estimated number

of students will rise to 5,178.

Dr Reed said the school system would look at different building sites just in

case a decision is made to build another school, but with taxpayers already

burdened with the high costs of a sewer system and library addition, a new

school is unlikely in the near future.

The report shows a 66 percent increase in annual births to Newtown residents

over past 19 years and a sizable jump in recent new home construction,

especially in Sandy Hook.

The Hawley addition would leave the elementary schools with the capacity to

accommodate the highest enrollment projection, and it appears the middle

school has the space to absorb projected growth for the next several years.

The report concludes, however, that the high school will only satisfy its

enrollment "crunch" demands if the proposed additions there take place. If

not, the report suggests "some form of overlapping or even double sessions and

program reductions will be required to house the students."

Using a formula called the Cohort Survival Model, the consultants were able to

make the projections. The model takes into account past and future trends,

birth rates, and economic forecasts.

The district receives enrollment projections from the state Department of

Education, but school officials have complained the projections have been

inaccurate, falling below actual enrollment each year.