Date: Fri 05-Jan-1996

Publication: Bee

Author: KAAREN

Quick Words:

weather-snow-winter

Full Text:

This Could Be One Of The Worst Winters Ever

B Y K AAREN V ALENTA

If you think will never stop snowing, you might be right. There's a National

Weather Service meterologist who says this could be among the worst winters in

180 years.

Paul Head, meterologist at the National Weather Service center in Taunton,

Mass., says that this winter, the winter of 1996, is bound to be a doozie.

He's been studying weather patterns and discovered that every nine years since

1960 has been a severe winter in much of New England. In addition to the

nine-year cycle, Mr Head believes there is a 180-year cycle for bad winters as

well, which also falls this year.

That's depressing news to the road crew in Newtown's Public Works Department.

For the second time in less than two weeks they worked more than 30 straight

hours plowing and sanding the roads on Tuesday and Wednesday.

"We worked our regular day, 7 to 3:30, on Tuesday then worked straight through

the night and all the next day until 6 pm," said Paul Tani. "Then we came in

at 4 am (Thursday morning) because it was still snowing overnight."

During the storm of December 19-20, they worked 40 hours straight.

So far this winter season, 32 to 36 inches of snow have fallen in the greater

Danbury area, which is about 25 inches above normal, according to Greg

Cantwell, meterologist at the Techni-Weather Center in Danbury. The snowfall

for a typical winter is 40 inches.

The temperatures are low, not only because of the cold air mass that moved

into New England but also because snow has been on the ground for weeks.

Normally the earth absorbs sunlight, which in turn warms the air above it.

This winter's snow cover, however, has been reflecting the sun's rays and its

heat.

The record for consecutive days of snow cover occurred just a few years ago in

the 1993-94 season when it was on the ground for 90 days, from December 24

until March 22. This season snow has been on the ground since December 9 and

if it is still here on March 8, a new record will be set.

"The winter of 1993-94 was the third snowiest of this century," Greg Cantwell

said. "This winter is shaping up the same way. It's going to make people long

for those years in the 1980s when we never thought we'd see a real winter

again."

The coldest temperatures in Connecticut on average occur on January 19 and 20

when the high is 33 degreees and the low is 16. This winter the coldest days

came early and stayed. This week the temperatures hovered around 20 during the

day and dipped into the teens at night.

Newtown boosted its winter maintenance budget from $305,000 last year to

$350,000 for this budget year so Public Works Director Fred Hurley hasn't had

to ask for more money yet. But if this winter winds up like 1993-94, the money

could run out. That year, winter maintenance - salt, sand, overtime, chains

and blades and contractural services - reached $489,644.

This week's storm required 622Πovertime hours, 663 yards of sand and 110 tons

of salt. So far this winter, the totals are 2,615« overtime hours at a cost of

$66,457; 4,215 yards of sand, $40,885; 828« tons of salt, $30,563, for a total

cost to date of $137,905.

Paul Head's scientific explanation of why this winter is bound to be bad has

to do with the difference between the solar day, which is 23 hours 56 minutes

and 4.1 seconds and the sidereal day, which is 24 hours. The weather patterns

have to follow the solar day, he said, and during the course of the year

troughs, or wave lengths, "back up" 10 to 12 degrees. The result has been that

every nine years, when the trough lines are in a certain position, New England

gets a lot of snow and there is bitter cold weather in the Midwest.

"In February 1987, Hyannis, Mass. got 60 inches of snow," Mr Head said. "In

1978 there was the great blizzard. In 1969 a snowstorm went on for five days -

it was called the Hundred Hours Storm in Boston. And in 1960, a three-day

March snowstorm broke the previous record in Boston. This record was broken

again in 1969 and 1978."

Mr Head's information focuses on Boston because that's the largest

metropolitan area in the Massachusetts-northern Connecticut region that the

Taunton center covers, but he says the pattern holds for most of New England.

Along with the nine-year solar cycle, Mr Head says there is a related 180-year

cycle weather cycle.

"The year 1636 was called the `winter of deep snows' by the colonists and the

year 1816 was called the `year without summer,'" he said. "The next year in

that cycle is 1996 and it may be the first 100-inch winter (snowfall) in

Boston in recorded history."

Mr Head says he hasn't written a professional paper about his theory because

doing so would probably bring heaps of ridicule from those who don't believe

in the reliability of weather predictions.

"People would look at me like I had two heads," he said. "They'd say you can't

predict nine years ahead when you can't even get today's weather right."

The Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service have

issued advisories that families, individuals and business should be prepared

for cold weather conditions.

A winter storm watch means "be alert, a storm is likely," while a winter storm

warning means "take action, a storm is in or entering the area."

"Nor'easters can combine the punch of hurricane-force winds, tidal surges, the

snow and sleet of a blizzard, and a paralyzing sheet of ice over much of the

Northeast and mid-Atlantic area with a single storm," warned Don Wernly, chief

of the National Weather Service's warning and forecast branch. But timely

preparation can help residents avoid the impacts of severe winter weather.

Cold-Weather Driving

Here are some cold-weather driving tips:

Keep your car fueled and in good repair. Fill windshield washer reservoirs

with anti-freezing washer fluid. If your car isn't kept in a garage, a

gasoline antifreeze may help prevent fuel lines and injectors from freezing.

Radiator coolant should be a 50/50 mix of water and antifreeze to keep the

engine from freezing or overheating.

Keep a winter survival kit in your car which includes a bag of salt, kitty

litter or sand, a snow brush and ice scraper, and a snow shovel. Other useful

items include tire chains, traction mats, a flashlight, booster cables, a

blanket and flares or reflective triangles.

Before starting the engine, turn off lights, radio and all accessories that

lower battery power. Don't use them until the car is started and warmed up.

Scrape off snow and ice from your car before starting out so that your vision

isn't restricted.