Connecticut’s Fifth District Seen As A Bellwether For GOP

By Andrew Miga

Associated Press

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The reelection campaign for veteran US Rep Nancy Johnson of Connecticut is one of several emerging as an early barometer for Republican fortunes in next year’s elections.

Races for the Fifth District congresswoman, Rep Deborah Pryce of Ohio, and Rep Vito Fossella of New York’s Staten Island are being watched by the Washington-based Cook Political Report for signs that Republicans could lose their majority in Congress.

“If you’re looking for a canary-in-a-coal-mine race, this is one,” said Amy Walter, who tracks House races for the organization. “If all of a sudden you see Nancy Johnson slip, it’s a sign other Republicans in similar districts should be concerned.”

Johnson is a 12-term congresswoman with a strong fundraising advantage over potential challengers and a reputation as a tough, seasoned campaigner. She scored double-digit victories in her past two races.

But the unfolding GOP ethics scandals, President Bush’s slumping popularity, and growing public doubts about the Iraq war are making it tougher for Republicans fighting to maintain their hold on Congress. It has emboldened Democrats seeking a net gain of 15 seats to recapture the House.

Republicans nationwide face a “political environment about as bleak as it’s ever been,” said Walter.

A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman said unseating Johnson ranks as a priority for the national party.

“Nancy Johnson’s seat has always been high on the list,” said Sarah Feinberg of the DCCC. “I know Shays and Simmons seem to get all the headline attention, but all three are top-tier candidates for us.”

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Carl Forti predicted a solid Johnson win next fall.

“People up there have known Nancy Johnson for years,” said Forti. “They know she votes her conscience, she doesn’t vote the party line.”

Johnson’s spokesman was reluctant to talk about the race.

“It’s very early,” said Brian Schubert. “When Democrats have their candidate, we’ll start talking about the campaign.”

Democrats Chris Murphy, a state senator, and J. Paul Vance, Jr, Waterbury Board of Aldermen president, are vying to run against Johnson next fall in a district that Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry won by 1,112 votes in 2004.

Murphy had a $234,245 campaign account balance, according to his third-quarter fundraising report, while Vance reported $13,071.

Johnson’s $1.9 million campaign war chest dwarfs her potential challengers, providing a crucial advantage.

Still, national Democrats are touting Murphy’s prospects, trying to link Johnson with the Bush administration.

“We’re talking to the national party on a daily basis,” said Murphy.

DCCC chairman Rahm Emanuel praised Murphy and delivered a $2,000 check last month.

Johnson’s toughest race was in 1996 when she edged Charlotte Koskoff by a single point. Murphy was Koskoff’s campaign manager.

“She learned her lesson in 1996,” Walter said. “I don’t underestimate her and the Democrats shouldn’t either.”

In two recent races, Johnson has proven more formidable. Running in a newly redrawn district three years ago, she scored a double-digit victory against incumbent Democratic Rep Jim Maloney.

In 2004, she cruised to reelection against Theresa Gerratana by 22 points.

If Johnson needs a financial boost from the national GOP, Forti said the party is prepared.

“But with the kind of money in the bank she has, she may not need any help,” Forti said.