Date: Mon 13-Oct-1997

Publication: Bee

Author: MICHEL

Quick Words:

schools-enrollment-FHH

Full Text:

School Board Sees More Children (And Perhaps Fairfield Hills) In Its Future

BY MICHELE HOGAN

In a draft of its latest five-year capital improvement plan, the Board of

Education has budgeted $1,125,000 for "Land Acquisition for New School" for

"Year Two 1999 - 2000." The land they have in mind is a portion of the

state-owned Fairfield Hills.

Twenty-two acres have been set aside for the town, and according to school

board chairman Herb Rosenthal, any requests from Newtown for additional

acreage surrounding the Fairfield Hills buildings or south of the bypass road

currently under construction should be considered favorably by the State of

Connecticut.

John Reed, superintendent of schools, said, "There are many great uses for the

property proposed, and I don't know that ours is better. A school is, however,

a basic need of a community. If there is not enough land, why not go to the

state and buy six to ten acres now, and reserve it for future school

purposes?"

Does Newtown really need a new school?

Focus Consulting Associates of Carmel, N.Y., was commissioned by the Board of

Education in 1995, 1996 and again in 1997 to examine and predict school

enrollment. So far, their forecasts have been accurate. The 1997 report will

be completed for December of 1997, and is unlikely to bring any big surprises.

The five-year forecast made in December of 1995 concluded that it is probable

that "the capacity of the elementary schools is large enough to contain the

highest pre-K to Grade 5 enrollment projection."

But, in 2000-2001, when the large number of third grade students (now 380) and

fourth grade students (now 363) join the ranks of middle school students, the

middle school will need more classrooms.

The Board of Education is in preliminary planning for moving their offices out

of the middle school, which would provide four extra classrooms. The board may

move to Newtown High School or, if that is not possible, may temporarily rent

office space at a projected cost of $300,000 for one year.

Eventually the Board of Education would like to share office space with the

town administration in Fairfield Hills if this can be arranged.

With all school space fully utilized, by 2004-2005 the middle school is likely

to reach its maximum enrollment, and "at that point, it will be a very crowded

school."

The elementary schools are also likely to be nearing capacity at that point.

According to Dr Reed, none of the schools lends itself to major additions. The

middle school, especially, is already sprawling, and does not offer an easy

way to expand.

But the problem is not immediate. "At this time," says Dr Reed, "there are no

preliminary plans, or even plans to make plans, about building any new public

school in Newtown."

He went on to say, however, that if we find all the schools bulging at the

seams, then having a site that could be used for a fifth and sixth grade

school could be a practical solution to general crowding.

Drawing fifth graders from the elementary schools would free up extra space in

each of the elementary schools, while drawing out the sixth graders would

relieve crowding at the middle school level. The combination of fifth and

sixth grade has worked well in other areas.

A School At Fairfield Hills?

In the December 1995 report by Bruce Bothwell of Focus Consulting Associates,

under the heading of "Fairfield Hills Hospital Land," Dr Bothwell recommended

that, "Should the Newtown Schools require a school site for the future, the

state should probably be put on notice as quickly as possible."

The Board of Education requested Plymouth Hall and some land at Fairfield

Hills soon after they received the report in December of 1995. Dr Reed said

that they have "not had much of a response" and "I think we have been told

`no' to Plymouth Hall by the fact that we have not been told `yes.'"

The portion of Fairfield Hills that Dr Reed considered the most desirable for

a school, along Queen Street, includes houses and some building lots, which

the state hopes to market.

Dr Reed would like to see a parcel of about 15 acres set aside for a future

school, even if it means buying a portion of it from the state now. According

to the consulting firm's 1995 report, "the entire process - from the decision

to purchase a site, to occupying a new [grades] 5-6 building - would probably

take three years."

Predicting Population

"Population projection is tricky," asserted Dr Reed. The Board of Education

does not know exactly how many pre-schoolers we have now, so it makes it hard

to predict how many we will have starting kindergarten, and when.

The Board of Education is conducting a census of local pre-schoolers. The

actual numbers of local toddlers can then be synthesized with economic,

geographic and cultural factors that might affect local population growth, and

low, middle and high projections of school needs can be made.

Dr Reed commented that there is a tendency to try to simplify demographics and

focus on only one cause for school numbers and that can be misleading.

Economic, geographic and cultural factors all affect the number of children in

Newtown, he said.

Focus Consulting made a five-year forecast that "the schools could expect

anywhere from 557 to 573 school-age students from new housing alone."

Perhaps the largest and most difficult to define variable, according to Dr

Reed, is the cultural factor. How many women of child-bearing age will be

living in Newtown, and how many children will they have? Data is available on

birth trends from local hospitals, but it is difficult to translate that data

into a formula to determine how many children will be entering kindergarten

from one year to the next, according to Dr Reed.

Newtown has had a large number of children entering kindergarten for the past

two years. Last year there were 323 in kindergarten, and this year - 346

kindergarten children. According to Dr Reed, it "looks like a one year blip."

He noted, however, that "if we get 350 for three, four or five years, then we

have challenging times."